SAWS Predicts Very Strong El Niño with Hotter, Drier Spring for South Africa

Johannesburg: The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has issued a warning that South Africa is set to face below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures this spring due to a strong El Niño event emerging in the Pacific Ocean. According to South African Government News Agency, SAWS stated on Tuesday that recent predictions suggest El Niño could intensify further, potentially becoming the most powerful event in living memory. A strong El Niño is characterized by three-monthly averaged sea surface temperature anomalies over the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean exceeding 1.5°C above climatological norms. In a very strong El Niño, this region of the ocean is 2°C warmer than usual. Current forecasts indicate that this event is likely to surpass the 3°C mark. SAWS reported that the recent weekly averaged sea surface temperature anomalies over the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean are already above the threshold for a very strong El Niño. Historically, most El Niño events have led to below-normal rainf all and above-normal temperatures in southern Africa. Notably, the El Niño events of 1982/83 and 2015/16 caused significant drought in the region. However, the very strong El Niño of 1997/98 was associated with slightly above-normal rainfall in parts of South Africa's summer rainfall areas. SAWS' seasonal forecast for October to December 2026 predicts below-normal rainfall as the most likely scenario across most of South Africa, along with above-normal temperatures. Similar conditions are expected from November 2026 to January 2027, with drier and warmer conditions remaining prevalent. The anticipated very strong 2026/27 El Niño, combined with global warming, may result in 2027 being the hottest year on record, echoing the unprecedented heatwaves of the 2015/16 El Niño. The southern African region has been warming over the past 11 years, and if the 2026/27 El Niño leads to the projected below-normal rainfall, more frequent heatwaves are likely. These heatwaves could be severe, but the uncertainty regarding the strength and regional impacts of this El Niño persists. SAWS emphasized the need for ongoing monitoring and communication of expected heatwaves and water scarcity to disaster management teams, industries sensitive to weather, the media, and the public. The weather service advises the public and industries sensitive to weather fluctuations to stay updated with monthly seasonal forecasts and daily short-term weather predictions to prepare for heatwaves and other high-impact weather events.